This is just a long-winded, inverted version of the aphorism about liberals’ paradoxical view of progressives; they’re a small, niche group, and the Democrats shouldn’t try to appease them because they’ll just alienate mainstream voters by courting this insignificant block of voters. However, progressives are somehow also a large, powerful cabal that can be blamed for every major Democratic loss.
Progressives could be the largest voting block and most still wouldn’t come out to vote. Why bother trying to gain the vote of a group that has historically low voting. There’s a reason Bernie didn’t win the primary despite massive grass roots movements.
“Study using self-reported data shows that those more interested in politics are more likely to self-report data with post-election surveys. More at 11.”
They literally say they are using self-reported post election surveys. Most people I know, including myself, have never done a post election survey. People that don’t vote also are not participating in post-election surveys. It’s an interesting study, but this is 100% textbook selection bias and I’m surprised Pew Research Center missed the mark on this one.
If progressives voted in overwhelming numbers, then Bernie would have won the primary. I voted for Bernie, but clearly not many others did.
Not that I should even have to debate this, since my my source is the Pew Research Center and yours is, “most people I know,” but that’s a blatant misrepresentation of the methodology. The survey uses data from a group of randomly selected panelists, not self-reported post-election surveys.
The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. …The ATP was created in 2014, with the first cohort of panelists invited to join the panel at the end of a large, national, landline and cellphone random-digit-dial survey that was conducted in both English and Spanish. Two additional recruitments were conducted using the same method in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Across these three surveys, a total of 19,718 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 9,942 (50%) agreed to participate.
The only reference to self-reporting I found was people self-reporting whether or not they voted, and even then, that was independently verified. I’m pretty sure you clicked the first link you saw, scrolled down until you found this paragraph, and didn’t read it very carefully:
Voter turnout and vote choice in the 2020 election is based on two different sources. First, self-reports of candidate choice were collected immediately after the general election in November 2020 (ATP W78). Secondly, ATP panelists were matched to commercial voter file databases to verify that they had indeed voted in the election. For more details, see “Behind Biden’s 2020 Victory.”
Also, if Bernie’s failure to win the Democratic primary proves progressives don’t vote, then it stands to reason that Clinton and Harris’ defeat proves that moderates don’t vote either, right? I mean, it seems stupid to me to make broad, sweeping generalizations about voter behavior over something that has as many variables as an election, but if that’s what you want to do, then you must concede that Harris and Clinton prove that moderates don’t vote.
Buddy, there’s nothing to debate. The “people I know” is in reference to the post election surveys. Something most people don’t participate in. Something your own quote says only 50% of those selected agreed to participate. It’s also not something I’m arguing, but you are choosing as a red herring.
It literally says, “Note Validated voters are citizens who said they voted in a post-election survey and were found to have voted in commercial voter files.”
#IT LITERALLY SAYS POST-ELECTION SURVEY
You even quoted a section saying, “Panelist participate via self-administered web surveys”
#IT LITERALLY SAYS SELF-ADMINISTERED
How fucking stupid are you that you prove my point when trying to pull a gotcha?
Furthermore, the Pew Research Center is not iron clad and immune to selection bias. They continue to recruit people for the panel and those interested participate, then they recruit more later. This goes back to me saying, “those interested in participating, vote more often.” Plus there is the caveat of surveys. Which are, at best, unreliable. If you understood anything about research, you would know that surveys are always carefully measured in terms of meaningfulness. People lie or misrepresent things ALL THE TIME.
#THIS IS VERY CLEARLY 100% SELECTION BIAS
You also can’t make a board sweeping generalization about Democrats not voting because many were vocal about it. You know what Progressives were vocal about, NOT VOTING. You’re even currently arguing with someone else about how not voting is somehow doing something positive. Like holy fuck. Every day I meet more and more fucking morons.
Oh my God, please sit down, you walking Dunning-Kruger. Clearly the quotes were over your head, so I’m going to explain it using smaller words.
So, you’re looking at very small quote from a single graph that says, “Note Validated voters are citizens who said they voted in a post-election survey and were found to have voted in commercial voter files.” You think that means that this survey is conducted exclusively by people who just voted, but it’s not. It’s just explaining to you how they verified that people, who were already randomly selected for the survey, actually voted.
How these people were actually selected was described in my first quote, but since it went over your head, I’ll rephrase it for you; the respondents were randomly selected through a random sampling of phone numbers, both landline and cell. 50% of those people asked if they’d like to be included in the survey said yes, which was about 10,000 people. This took place between July 8th and July 18th of 2021.
I know it said, “self-administered,” at one point, and that was very confusing for you, but that isn’t describing how people were selected for the survey, it’s describing how they took the survey. They self-administered it online, but it was still sent out by Pew to randomly pre-selected candidates, not anyone who wanted to take it. Do you get it now?
So, just to be 100% clear, so you don’t get confused anymore, between July 8th and July 18th of 2021, Pew Research Center selected about 10,000 randomly selected Americans for a survey. They then self-administered that survey through a website shared with them by the Pew Research Center. They were asked about their votes in the last election, and while that information was self-reported, it was also independently verified with voter databases to ensure it was true. There are literally 2 Appendices of information attached to this survey that explain all of this.
So, A) no, this is not a selection problem, you just don’t understand the selection process, and B) if it seems like everyone else is a, “fucking moron,” well, I’ve actually got a theory on why that is.
You have no argument. You are trying to pull a gotcha on a report you randomly googled and then didn’t read. Projecting that I didn’t read it, when I did. Clearly better than you. And now you’re trying to call this a Dunning-Kruger situation, when clearly you don’t understand how surveys work, how studies work, or possess the proper reading comprehension skills to actually understand and digest the information you are glancing at and speed reading.
However, you are right, this is a Dunning-Kruger situation, because YOU are not a researcher and YOU do not understand the caveat associated with surveys, especially self-administered surveys. (A distinction you clearly don’t understand).
You have no argument. You have no point. You are done. No go fuck off and continue to not vote while demanding change.
LOL, you are a fantastically stupid person who has somehow convinced himself he’s brilliant. You can keep repeating, “self-administered post-election survey,” but that just means, “survey that was conducted after the election, in which the participants administered the survey to themselves rather than being given the questions by a surveyor.” You think that means there was selection bias, but all of those steps took place after the selection process.
You’re reading a one sentence summary of a single process to verify one data point and thinking you understand the entire survey methodology. It’s like you’ve got the directions for baking a cake, and you’re only looking at the last step that says, “remove cake from refrigerator and cover with icing.” Then, when someone tries to tell you that you need to put the cake batter in the oven, you keep saying, “no, cakes go in the fridge, can’t you read, dumb-ass?”
It was honestly kind of infuriating at first, but it’s becoming funnier and funnier the longer it goes on. Please keep digging this hole.
Name one moment in history where abstaining from the bare mimimim to avoid catastrophic consequences results in a net gain.
I ask this because you’re trying to make this party thing where I’d title paring attention and reading for context- you’ll see clearly that It’s an ACTION thing.
Interesting that you went to progressives so quickly though. Especially since I never even mentioned the word.
Name one moment in history where abstaining from the bare mimimim to avoid catastrophic consequences results in a net gain.
Name a point where I said abstaining from voting was good. My point wasn’t that protest voting was good. It was that you could make the exact opposite point (with a lot fewer words) using your exact logic. Which means it’s not a good point.
I ask this because you’re trying to make this party thing where I’d title paring [you mean “try paying,” maybe?] attention and reading for context- you’ll see clearly that It’s an ACTION thing.
Again, fine, let’s make it an action thing. If the protest voters were so necessary to Harris’ election, why didn’t she take any actions to win them over? That was incredibly irresponsible of her.
Are you beginning to see how all your arguments can be flipped just as easily to place the blame on the candidate instead of the voters? Do you think maybe that’s because, even though you’ve convinced yourself that what your saying is cold, hard logic, your actually just screaming your opinions at people?
For the record, I voted for Harris out of harm reduction, and I wish she’d won. However, I believe that it is a candidates job to win an election, not the voters job to get them elected. If there was a significant contingent of voters withholding their vote, I think that candidate must have been doing a shitty job.
Interesting that you went to progressives so quickly though. Especially since I never even mentioned the word.
That says a LOT.
Yeah, it says I saw more than 2 minutes of political coverage in 2024, so I knew that Harris wasn’t getting criticism for being too progressive. Grow up.
I guess I should have actually been more encouraging; the first comment, it took you more than 200 words to say nothing. This time, you did it in one. That’s a huge improvement! Good job!
Isn’t there some other comment out there that also has nothing at all to do with you that you can beat to death? Or is it too much effort for you to keep getting on and off of that high horse of yours??
Then you’re clearly not who I’m talking about. I guess it’s either that simple reading comprehension is an issue for you, or you have a white knight complex.
One of the two- but my point remains untouched regardless.
I used “you” directed at you prior to knowing you voted. Did you not take this into consideration, or do you just have a problem with placing things in chronological order? Or is it that you did this intentionally?
Because- it does come off as you white knighting yourself into a discussion that wasn’t even directed at you with the intent to trap me into some little “gotcha” moment.
I’ve seen you pull this shit before. It doesn’t work like you think it does.
Because it doesn’t come off as you white knighting yourself into a discussion that wasn’t even directed at you with the intent to trap me into some little “gotcha” moment.
You literally replied to me saying that.
It’s a public fourm, anyone who comments is being added to the conversation. Jesus Christ.
I’ve seen you pull this shit before. It doesn’t work like you think it does.
So is this you at me or a nebulous other meaning “you” that only Rheori has in your personal dictionary?
Yup, it was not lost on me that this was essentially Eco’s 8th feature of fascism. Not that the Democrats are fascists; they don’t match most of the other features, especially 6 (I don’t think it’d ever occurred to them to appeal to anyone’s frustrations), but it seems liberals have at least borrowed this rhetorical attack to punch left.
I mean when you consider how much they benefit from Trump and his economic polices, it makes sense why they do. Not to meantion how many are some of the most bigoted people until its profitable enough. Scatch a liberal…
I mean, I tend to believe that they’re actually just a truly incompetent, cowardly bunch that are too afraid to fight and too stupid to realize that a party can’t simultaneously serve a working-class base and billionaire donors. That being said, I’ve been much more open to the controlled opposition theory since Schumer caved on the budget for no conceivable reason.
This is just a long-winded, inverted version of the aphorism about liberals’ paradoxical view of progressives; they’re a small, niche group, and the Democrats shouldn’t try to appease them because they’ll just alienate mainstream voters by courting this insignificant block of voters. However, progressives are somehow also a large, powerful cabal that can be blamed for every major Democratic loss.
Progressives could be the largest voting block and most still wouldn’t come out to vote. Why bother trying to gain the vote of a group that has historically low voting. There’s a reason Bernie didn’t win the primary despite massive grass roots movements.
Literally the opposite is true. People on the far-left and far-right are much more likely to vote than people in the middle.
“Study using self-reported data shows that those more interested in politics are more likely to self-report data with post-election surveys. More at 11.”
They literally say they are using self-reported post election surveys. Most people I know, including myself, have never done a post election survey. People that don’t vote also are not participating in post-election surveys. It’s an interesting study, but this is 100% textbook selection bias and I’m surprised Pew Research Center missed the mark on this one.
If progressives voted in overwhelming numbers, then Bernie would have won the primary. I voted for Bernie, but clearly not many others did.
Not that I should even have to debate this, since my my source is the Pew Research Center and yours is, “most people I know,” but that’s a blatant misrepresentation of the methodology. The survey uses data from a group of randomly selected panelists, not self-reported post-election surveys.
The only reference to self-reporting I found was people self-reporting whether or not they voted, and even then, that was independently verified. I’m pretty sure you clicked the first link you saw, scrolled down until you found this paragraph, and didn’t read it very carefully:
Also, if Bernie’s failure to win the Democratic primary proves progressives don’t vote, then it stands to reason that Clinton and Harris’ defeat proves that moderates don’t vote either, right? I mean, it seems stupid to me to make broad, sweeping generalizations about voter behavior over something that has as many variables as an election, but if that’s what you want to do, then you must concede that Harris and Clinton prove that moderates don’t vote.
Buddy, there’s nothing to debate. The “people I know” is in reference to the post election surveys. Something most people don’t participate in. Something your own quote says only 50% of those selected agreed to participate. It’s also not something I’m arguing, but you are choosing as a red herring.
It literally says, “Note Validated voters are citizens who said they voted in a post-election survey and were found to have voted in commercial voter files.”
#IT LITERALLY SAYS POST-ELECTION SURVEY
You even quoted a section saying, “Panelist participate via self-administered web surveys”
#IT LITERALLY SAYS SELF-ADMINISTERED
How fucking stupid are you that you prove my point when trying to pull a gotcha?
Furthermore, the Pew Research Center is not iron clad and immune to selection bias. They continue to recruit people for the panel and those interested participate, then they recruit more later. This goes back to me saying, “those interested in participating, vote more often.” Plus there is the caveat of surveys. Which are, at best, unreliable. If you understood anything about research, you would know that surveys are always carefully measured in terms of meaningfulness. People lie or misrepresent things ALL THE TIME.
#THIS IS VERY CLEARLY 100% SELECTION BIAS
You also can’t make a board sweeping generalization about Democrats not voting because many were vocal about it. You know what Progressives were vocal about, NOT VOTING. You’re even currently arguing with someone else about how not voting is somehow doing something positive. Like holy fuck. Every day I meet more and more fucking morons.
Oh my God, please sit down, you walking Dunning-Kruger. Clearly the quotes were over your head, so I’m going to explain it using smaller words.
So, you’re looking at very small quote from a single graph that says, “Note Validated voters are citizens who said they voted in a post-election survey and were found to have voted in commercial voter files.” You think that means that this survey is conducted exclusively by people who just voted, but it’s not. It’s just explaining to you how they verified that people, who were already randomly selected for the survey, actually voted.
How these people were actually selected was described in my first quote, but since it went over your head, I’ll rephrase it for you; the respondents were randomly selected through a random sampling of phone numbers, both landline and cell. 50% of those people asked if they’d like to be included in the survey said yes, which was about 10,000 people. This took place between July 8th and July 18th of 2021.
I know it said, “self-administered,” at one point, and that was very confusing for you, but that isn’t describing how people were selected for the survey, it’s describing how they took the survey. They self-administered it online, but it was still sent out by Pew to randomly pre-selected candidates, not anyone who wanted to take it. Do you get it now?
So, just to be 100% clear, so you don’t get confused anymore, between July 8th and July 18th of 2021, Pew Research Center selected about 10,000 randomly selected Americans for a survey. They then self-administered that survey through a website shared with them by the Pew Research Center. They were asked about their votes in the last election, and while that information was self-reported, it was also independently verified with voter databases to ensure it was true. There are literally 2 Appendices of information attached to this survey that explain all of this.
So, A) no, this is not a selection problem, you just don’t understand the selection process, and B) if it seems like everyone else is a, “fucking moron,” well, I’ve actually got a theory on why that is.
You have no argument. You are trying to pull a gotcha on a report you randomly googled and then didn’t read. Projecting that I didn’t read it, when I did. Clearly better than you. And now you’re trying to call this a Dunning-Kruger situation, when clearly you don’t understand how surveys work, how studies work, or possess the proper reading comprehension skills to actually understand and digest the information you are glancing at and speed reading.
However, you are right, this is a Dunning-Kruger situation, because YOU are not a researcher and YOU do not understand the caveat associated with surveys, especially self-administered surveys. (A distinction you clearly don’t understand).
You have no argument. You have no point. You are done. No go fuck off and continue to not vote while demanding change.
LOL, you are a fantastically stupid person who has somehow convinced himself he’s brilliant. You can keep repeating, “self-administered post-election survey,” but that just means, “survey that was conducted after the election, in which the participants administered the survey to themselves rather than being given the questions by a surveyor.” You think that means there was selection bias, but all of those steps took place after the selection process.
You’re reading a one sentence summary of a single process to verify one data point and thinking you understand the entire survey methodology. It’s like you’ve got the directions for baking a cake, and you’re only looking at the last step that says, “remove cake from refrigerator and cover with icing.” Then, when someone tries to tell you that you need to put the cake batter in the oven, you keep saying, “no, cakes go in the fridge, can’t you read, dumb-ass?”
It was honestly kind of infuriating at first, but it’s becoming funnier and funnier the longer it goes on. Please keep digging this hole.
Name one moment in history where abstaining from the bare mimimim to avoid catastrophic consequences results in a net gain.
I ask this because you’re trying to make this party thing where I’d title paring attention and reading for context- you’ll see clearly that It’s an ACTION thing.
Interesting that you went to progressives so quickly though. Especially since I never even mentioned the word.
That says a LOT.
Name a point where I said abstaining from voting was good. My point wasn’t that protest voting was good. It was that you could make the exact opposite point (with a lot fewer words) using your exact logic. Which means it’s not a good point.
Again, fine, let’s make it an action thing. If the protest voters were so necessary to Harris’ election, why didn’t she take any actions to win them over? That was incredibly irresponsible of her.
Are you beginning to see how all your arguments can be flipped just as easily to place the blame on the candidate instead of the voters? Do you think maybe that’s because, even though you’ve convinced yourself that what your saying is cold, hard logic, your actually just screaming your opinions at people?
For the record, I voted for Harris out of harm reduction, and I wish she’d won. However, I believe that it is a candidates job to win an election, not the voters job to get them elected. If there was a significant contingent of voters withholding their vote, I think that candidate must have been doing a shitty job.
Yeah, it says I saw more than 2 minutes of political coverage in 2024, so I knew that Harris wasn’t getting criticism for being too progressive. Grow up.
Yawn….
Wow. So witty and insightful. And it only took you 24 hours to come up with it. Amazing.
It’s far more that your nonsense warrants.
I guess I should have actually been more encouraging; the first comment, it took you more than 200 words to say nothing. This time, you did it in one. That’s a huge improvement! Good job!
Isn’t there some other comment out there that also has nothing at all to do with you that you can beat to death? Or is it too much effort for you to keep getting on and off of that high horse of yours??
LOL, you waited a full 24 hours to reply, “Yawn.” If you weren’t so thirsty for getting the last word in, we wouldn’t be talking right now.
The enemy is both weak and strong. The progressives are too small to pay attention to their requests, but cost millions of votes.
Oh progressives are definitely weak. But numerous. A simple bare minimum vote would have stopped ALL of this from happening.
But you couldn’t even do that. So yeah… weak as fuck if you ask me.
Then you’re clearly not who I’m talking about. I guess it’s either that simple reading comprehension is an issue for you, or you have a white knight complex.
One of the two- but my point remains untouched regardless.
You used you directed at me, replying to me, twice. That’s not confusing, that’s you deflecting because you have no argument.
I used “you” directed at you prior to knowing you voted. Did you not take this into consideration, or do you just have a problem with placing things in chronological order? Or is it that you did this intentionally?
Because- it does come off as you white knighting yourself into a discussion that wasn’t even directed at you with the intent to trap me into some little “gotcha” moment.
I’ve seen you pull this shit before. It doesn’t work like you think it does.
You literally replied to me saying that.
It’s a public fourm, anyone who comments is being added to the conversation. Jesus Christ.
So is this you at me or a nebulous other meaning “you” that only Rheori has in your personal dictionary?
LOL!
Wow. You aren’t good at this. Check where in the discussion you decided to reveal that you voted. Was it before, or after that?
Yup, it was not lost on me that this was essentially Eco’s 8th feature of fascism. Not that the Democrats are fascists; they don’t match most of the other features, especially 6 (I don’t think it’d ever occurred to them to appeal to anyone’s frustrations), but it seems liberals have at least borrowed this rhetorical attack to punch left.
I mean when you consider how much they benefit from Trump and his economic polices, it makes sense why they do. Not to meantion how many are some of the most bigoted people until its profitable enough. Scatch a liberal…
I mean, I tend to believe that they’re actually just a truly incompetent, cowardly bunch that are too afraid to fight and too stupid to realize that a party can’t simultaneously serve a working-class base and billionaire donors. That being said, I’ve been much more open to the controlled opposition theory since Schumer caved on the budget for no conceivable reason.